There are a lot of things to consider when dissecting the success Kansas has had during its current 7-game streak. With the toughest road test coming at Oklahoma during the stretch, Allen Fieldhouse has of course been a huge factor with two home games coming against top-20 teams. It is essential for KU to win its next four games before a huge matchup in Columbia which may be the first top-5 MU/KU matchup since the early 90s.
Back to the title of this post. What do I mean by a '03 repeat? There are several similarities in this blogger's mind between the Jayhawk team that marched through the West bracket of the NCAA Tournament and onto the National Championship game.
- Limited depth
- A national player of the year candidate and a sidekick worthy of all conference honors
- Three other starters who compliment in their own unique way
- A bench that's as reliable as a Ford Fiesta
- Tough schedule
In talking with the roommate, the topic of depth and its worth has come up quite a bit. With the Kentucky Wildcats making it to the Final Four in 2011, I was left scratching my head about how much having Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson play about 14 minutes a game off the bench was worth. Is it perhaps worth more for the same Elijah Johnson to be forced into played 35 minutes per game against top flight competition simply because Coach Self can't trust his backup after Johnson throws a pass into the stands?
The maturation of this team from when they played UK at Madison Square Garden to when it blasted Baylor can be attributed the starting five playing 30 plus minutes per game. They've been forced to work through their issues. Gone are the days when KU had a second five capable of beating Davidson on any given day. If Davidson's starters play better than KU's starters once out of ten games, it's enough to pull off the upset. Last year, that wouldn't have been enough. The second five Kansas could put on the floor would have bailed out the starters.
A team with a very limited rotation is better in March. That's just an opinion based on the success of Kentucky last year and the success of KU in '02, '03 and '08. In '03 especially, the weight placed on Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich prepared them for huge post season tests against Duke and Arizona. In '11, the Jayhawks were not prepared. Against USC, KU won because they had a freshman playing in his first game get hot and bail them out. That 5-star recruit is not sitting on the bench this year. It's on the starting five to get things done. They're the most important five guys on the team and when there's people on the bench to bail them out during the regular season, they might forget that when it matters most.
Now, I wasn't able to pay close attention to the '88 Championship but I'm assuming it was a similar situation. What would have happened in '97 if Raef LaFrentz and Paul Pierce were relied on to carry the team each and every game instead of having Billy Thomas there to relieve them? They would have been better prepared to beat Arizona in the Sweet 16.
For the sake of good argument, the '08 team used depth in the Final Four to push through to the Championship game. Cole Aldrich, a little used center came in and had his best game of the year against North Carolina. That of course won't happen this year for the Jayhawks. If Thomas Robinson gets three fouls against Tyler Zeller in the first half, Kevin Young is not coming off the bench take him to school as Aldrich did Tyler Hansbrough.
That's why this team is similar to '03. Bryant Nash was nowhere near a good enough player to bail KU out when Keith Langford picked up four fouls guarding Carmelo Anthony. That could have been the difference in the Championship. Likewise, the development of Jeff Graves because he was forced to log major minutes the entire conference season contributed to the wins against Duke and Arizona.
The X-Factor this year is Thomas Robinson. Nick Collison is an all time KU great. Robinson though could be on a different level in March. As the frontrunner for national player of the year, Robinson has been an absolute nightmare for the opposition. With a continued steady rate of development up to March, he could be set to "Carmelo'ize" the Jayhawks. He can be that dominant. If the supporting cast can divert some of the attention from Robinson, the "least talented" team in the Bill Self era of Kansas basketball could be hanging another banner next October.